Lots of you had a guess at the value of my Lakeland bag, lots of you will be horrified and on the other hand lots of you won’t be surprised….

The total of my shopping was the grand total of **£86.56** and inside was….

Alan Silverwood Multisize Cake Pan £28.99

Extra Dividers £8.99

Ultimate Lakeland Clingfilm £5.79

Ultimate Lakeland Foil £10.99

50 Pink Cupcake Cases £1.99

50 Green Cupcake Cases £1.99

50 Lilac Cupcake Cases £1.99

50 Yellow Cupcake Cases £1.99

100 Spotted Cupcake Cases £3.29

Oven Thermometer £5.79

Yellow Sugarpaste £1.49

10 Disposable Foil Trays £3.99

Small Self Seal Bags £3.29

A Wilton Cake Marker £5.99

**Total £86.56**

The closest guess below the total was from Pauline who has won a duplicate set of goodies from Lakeland – well done! xx

PS. The winner has been contacted directly by email. Thanks to everyone who entered Xx

Ruth Clemens, Baker Extraordinaire

Bloody awesome guess just 2p out

oh damn I missed this comp….that silverwood pan is one of my best buys & I love how it folds flat for storage!

I have used it so much already – definitely one of my more worthwhile investments! x

Well done to the winner, what a brilliant (and generous!) prize. Ruth, thanks also for posting the photo/list of what was in the bag – l love Lakeland, inspired by your purchases l’m now planning a trip to the Glasgow store.:) You should be on commission from Lakeland, payment in kind of course

Well done to the winner! to get within 2p is extraordinary – second sight almost. I will continue to envy her for a little while before realising that I already have every darned thing on the list LOL.

Thank you for taking the time and the money to do this Ruth, you are so kind.

Hi

I entered in the eighties a mainly male dominated occupation, and became a chartered accountant and a registered auditor, so have dealt with numbers for many decades, and the chance of someone guessing almost the same is millions to one.

SHAME ON YOU FOR TRYING TO PULL A FAST ONE ON YOUR MANY SUBSCRIBERS. I for one will be unsubscribing.

Jacquie

Stop being ridiculous Jacquie. It is a bit of fun!!! Get over yourself!!

Jacquie…all you need to do to scroll down the list of entries and you’ll see that there are others that weren’t far off. With over 700 entries, it’s not surprising that someone guessed so close!

I’m sorry Jacquie, but how the hell can it be millions to one? Most people wouldn’t estimate the bagful to be more than £100 and it was always likely to be over £10. Ergo, most people’s guesses are going to be in the range of £10.00 and £100.00. If we increment in pence that means there are 9,000 likely guesses so the chance of someone getting it right is 9,000 to 1, possibly less if people ruled out it being less than £20 or £30.

No-one did get it right, but was 2p away. The chances of that are 5 in 9,000 or 1,800 to 1 and therefore nothing like “Millions” to one you state here.

You may be an accountant, but you are clearly NOT a mathematician. I think your comment is unnecessary and totally uncalled for. Ruth is one of the loveliest people I know and she would not defraud anyone at all. You should be ashamed of yourself for being such a bad loser.

I’m confused. It’s a small bag, and a prize being provided by an individual out of their own pocket.

In order for the chances of winning to be millions to one (lets say 2m to 1, for the sake of argument) then the value of the one small bag of cooking items would need to be £20,000. Hardly likely.

If we estimate the value of the bag contents at a more reasonable £100, then the chances of any one single guess being correct exactly would be 1 in 10,000, and the odds of being within 10p either way would be 20 in 10,000 or 1 in 5,000.

And I’m not even an accountant

First of all Jacquie it was closest guess, not exact guess, so you are clearly not great at reading instructions. Secondly, lets say a likely spend would be £150 or below, that means your odds of hitting it on the head, to the pence, would be 15000/1 or less, hardly the millions/1 you are talking about. So you’re not as great with numbers as you think you are. All of which doesn’t matter anyway because as Ruth said IT IS THE CLOSEST GUESS. Thirdly, Ruth is kindly giving away a great prize for a FREE to enter competition and you have a go at her for pulling a fast one! Shameful.

Jacquie,

I fail to see how Ruth is trying to pull a fast one.

The person with the nearest guess won the prize. Had the nearest guess been £40 short of the total they still would have won!

I am impressed that Ruth had been kind enough to offer such lovely prizes to her followers. In my opinion your comments are so unfair and misguided that I felt compelled to respond which is something I have never felt the need to do before!

Regards,

Emma

Hello Jacquie, I too have dealt with numbers for many decades (as an engineer and chartered accountant) and fail to see how “the chance of someone guessing almost the same is millions to one”.

For the odds to be “millions to one” you are implying that the value of the shopping within one single carrier bag at least £20,000! As the nearest guess would win – the odds could be no more than 696:1 (the number of entrants). As someone with “many decades” of dealing with numbers you should have picked up at least some rudimentary understanding of probability.

I also got the impression this was a free competition, so I fail to see how anyone was pulling “a fast one”?

Shame on you for your very impolite post, and shame on you for throwing doubt on the numerical ability of my profession.

Steve

Wow, something tells me you will be the ONLY person who feels like this. Shame on you for spoiling a bit of fun.

I am fairly glad you are not my accountant Jacquie as I disagree with your maths.

Anyone who regularly shops in Lakeland and reads Ruth’s blog could guess that a bag full could easily cost between £50 and £100. Given Ruth is generously funding the prize I would consider it unlikely she has spend over £100.

There are 5000 different sums between £50 and £100 (a fair assumption for the value of the prize). To get the exact amount would be odds of 1/5000. To get the exact amount or within 2p either side reduced those odds to 1/1000. Given the large number of entries it is unsurprising that someone guessed this close.

“millions to 1″

Err to be 1 million to one you’d have to have a chance of anywhere between 1 pence and a million pence (£100000 in case you can’t count)

For an accountant you’re number skills are terrible and you’re common sense is screwed up.

phew … glad my accountant can do basic math

Um, is the chance not the same for picking any number? The National Lottery must really get you steamed up. Someone was lucky enough to guess almost the correct amount, get over it.

Get a grip Jacquie it was meant to be a bit of fun- clue was in the instructions ‘guess the value’ I’m sure The Pink Whisk would prefer you to unsubscribe than ruin everyone else’s fun.

Hmmm not sure how lady above reaches the figure of “millions” to one. In all probability the prize was going to be worth somewhere between £50 and £100 which would actually be a parameter of 5000 (pence).

The words “toys” and “pram” spring to mind!

Thanks for generously running the comp Ruth, and well done Pauline for winning. Great guess and some lovely prizes.

What poor poor Loser Jacquie only someone a little bitter and jealous would have thought that.

The rest of us Pink Whiskers all thought what a stroke of bloody good luck !!

Well done winner and shame on you Jacquie

Honestly, what a completely pointless reply. Why would you bother to rig it? My granny used to say that if you haven’t anything nice to say, don’t say anything.

Ruth – I think its good that she’s unsubscribed, saves you the bother of blocking her.

It seems that chartered accountants/auditors don’t study probability theory…if one chooses to assume that the value of the bag is £100.00 or less, the odds of picking the right price are 1 in 10,001, not 1 in x million! The odds in this case can be reduced by further assumptions one might make e.g. the value is unlikely to be under £5.00 (in which case the odds are 1 in 9501), and one’s personal experience of getting out of Lakeland with one’s credit card unscathed (unquantifiable – but I certainly wouldn’t have guessed anything under £50.00! So my odds would have been 1 in 5001). Even where the odds of guessing the right combination of digits are 1 in x million, it still happens…the National Lottery-winning bus drivers, for example, had a 1 in 13,983,816 chance of winning. So, Jacquie, go ahead and unsubscribe. But before you do, you owe Ruth a public apology for your unwarranted and libellous comment.

I love Lakeland. I was there last week too and bought he cupcake cases and the multidimensional tin (with additional inserts). Already had the oven thermometer. Sooo expensive though, but I just can’t keep away! Oh and my local is the Handforth branch too

Oh lol I love autocorrect. I typed multisized. Multidimensional is definitely too big a word for me after a busy day :-))

I LOVE LOVE Lakeland, our nearest is Glasgow so whenever we are up there this is one shop that is a must to visit. Well done to the winner.